Al Qaeda's next moves

Joe Katzman has an excellent analysis of what al Qaeda is probably up to.

Joe says that al Qaeda is intentionally trying to get a hot war going between India and Pakistan:

Al-Qaeda 3 sees 3 key benefits from continued hostility:

1. Distracts Musharraf from potentially hostile actions in Waziristan.

2. Potential regime change to a weaker or friendlier leader, either of which enhances their ability to continue operating from Pakistan as their main base.

3. If war breaks out, India can be portrayed as part of the Christian-Jewish-Hindu conspiracy against Muslims, hopefully helping to incite widespread jihad in the Islamic world.

Joe also points out that assassinating Secretary Rumsfeld when he visits Pakistan would reap al Qaeda far more upside than downside.