Geitner Simmons sent me a link to this piece in the Omaha World Herald (one of my favorite places since it cited me) that cautions against being optimistic that the course of the Terror War will be smooth.
Abraham Lincoln, in a letter during the Civil War, expressed his frustration in trying to shape the course of the conflict.
"I claim not to have controlled events, but confess plainly that events have controlled me," Lincoln wrote. "Now, at the end of three years struggle, the nation's condition is not what either party, or any man devised, or expected."
Military conflicts, in other words, can easily take unexpected turns, to the frustration of presidents and citizens alike. Understanding that fact doesn't mean inaction is the preferred course. Lincoln's army, after all, ultimately prevailed because it sloughed off its initial lethargy and launched energetic offensives.
Nonetheless, Lincoln's words sound an appropriate cautionary note in the wake of Sept. 11. As the United States carries out its fight against al-Qaida terrorists, it would do well to proceed with a prudent regard for complications and unintended consequences.
It is very difficult to think about all the possible consequences of our actions, and the wider ranging the planned actions are, the more unintended consequences there will be. The crystal ball will always be cloudy.
It would be a mistake to think that at the end of the Terror War the world be be under a rainbow sky and every meal will be a banquet. Defeating al Qaeda will not ring in the eschaton.
On a related topic, I wrote back on March 29 on the OODA Loop, which explains how one retaines the initiative and how it can be lost.
About 15 years ago or so there was a popular expression among U.S. Army officers, "getting inside their OODA loop." It came from the work of former Air Force fighter pilot and fighter designer John Boyd. It stands for Observe, Orient, Decide, Act, now used as a paradigm in the military, business and even academia as a standard decision-cycle model. Boyd's concept basically means:
The model is called a loop because your own actions inevitably cause changes in the operational environment that call for the process to be repeated, as well as the fact that the environment changes on its own, anyway.
"Getting inside their OODA loop" meant simply that the side that was able to perform the four functions better and quicker would retain the initiative to mostly act rather than react, and overall, the competition or enemy would have to react to that side.
If we can stay inside the enemy's OODA Loop, our crystal ball will be clearer (but not crystal clear).
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