The threat was contained in a White House document, called the "National Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction," to be delivered to Congress on Wednesday.This is a threat that is necessary to make; as the article points out, it is intended to deter hostile regimes. But it's probably not a threat that we would or should make good.
The six-page statement underscores long-standing policy that the United States "reserves the right to respond with overwhelming force — including through resort to all of our options — to the use of WMD (weapons of mass destruction) against the United States, our forces abroad and friends and allies."
During the Cold War the US always said it stood ready to use nuclear weapons against the Soviet Union if the situation warranted. But the US and USSR were approximately evenly matched, and both were colossi; there could be no limited war between them because they could each escalate so rapidly to the level of inflicting total destruction on the other. Mutual Assured Destruction was a fact, and both sides knew it. Just as importantly, the struggle between the US and USSR was never primarily military anyway; it was a war of ideas. What the Soviets wanted to do was convert the world to communism, not destroy it. Having come to power through revolution, Stalin and successors wanted to foment similar revolutions in other countries. Yet successful revolutions are mass movements. They require masses of people to be converted, emotionally, to the revolutionary side, either actively to participate or passively support it. Persuasion, not destruction, was always the linchpin of the Soviet export of Marxism-Leninism to other lands. Not everyone in a country needed to be converted, but a large enough number had to be so that without a "critical mass" of True Believers, communism could not be established except as a fringe movement. (Of course, the Cold War was violent, but only on the peripheries of the US and USSR.)
But today there is no Mutual Assured Destruction between the US and any hostile state. There is the threat that Iraq, Iran and North Korea could develop WMDs that could be used against the US proper or its forces overseas, but none of the potential threats measure up to the total destructive potential of the old USSR. So these nations will someday be able to hurt us badly, but not destroy us. We, on the other hand, can destroy them utterly.
That's the calculus that the administration's is hoping that hostile regimes will figure: that any WMD attack against the US or US forces would assure their destruction, not their victory. But will it actually deter them?
Leave aside atomic weapons; of the three countries of the Axis of Evil, only North Korea has any (so it claims). Iraq has been working desperately to build one or more, but almost certainly has not succeeded. Iran's emphasis has been long range rocketry, not atomic warheads, although the nation is technically capable of producing them if it could obtain the specialized equipment and atomic material.
Hence we are left with the threat of chemical and biological weapons. This probably leaves out North Korea, which has pursued atomic weapons to gain great power status. North Korea's ideology has always called for its communist government to rule over a unified Korean peninsula; it wants to conquer South Korea, not destroy it. Bioweapons are too dangerous to use because they could backfire against the North. Just as daunting, they could propagate into neighboring China, which North Korea simply cannot afford. Chemical weapons the North may have, but there is no point using them unless someone invades the North, and no one is about to do that anytime. North Korea is the arms factory of the Axis, but not its combatant.
Iran's leaders, even the extremists, would certainly prefer that Iran not be destroyed even if the alternative was conquest by the US, which is not a prospect being discussed anyway. So Assured Destruction will deter them provided they find the threat of it credible. Besides, the US is not saber rattling at Iran, so the mullahs surely know that their best chance to stay in power is not to so something stupid, like attack the US.
That leaves Iraq. We know from the previous years of UN inspections that Iraq has developed both biological and chemical weapons and was nearing success in obtaining atomic weapons. The US is already committed to regime change there. So to save his skin and power, Saddam would resort to using WMDs if necessary. But our threats to use nukes as retaliation against Iraq is not credible. We are not making war against the Iraqi people, whom we have already declared are in need of liberation, not conquest.
Using atomic weapons against Iraq would accrue to the US no strategic or tactical benefit. Conventional weapons are now so destructive that nukes are not necessary just to destroy enemy formations and installations. The idea that we would nuke cities is repulsive: our objective is not to destroy Iraq but to liberate its people from murderous repression.
I discussed this subject in detail in my Nov. 15 posting, "Why the US cannot retaliate against Iraq if Iraq uses WMDs." Also, I discussed in detail why using WMDs against US troops is a no lose move for Saddam.