Wednesday, September 11, 2002

My short reflection for our evening prayer service

Opening hymn: "My Country, Tis of Thee"

Lamentations 5:21; 3:21-26
Restore us to yourself, O LORD, that we may return; renew our days as of old.

Yet this I call to mind and therefore I have hope: Because of the LORD's great love we are not consumed, for his compassions never fail. They are new every morning; great is your faithfulness.

I say to myself, "The LORD is my portion; therefore I will wait for him." The LORD is good to those whose hope is in him, to the one who seeks him; it is good to wait quietly for the salvation of the LORD.


There were commemorations and memorial services around the country today. The television networks began covering the anniversary activities at seven this morning and are continuing even now.

Once again we saw the smoke, the fire, the ash-covered, stunned people stumbling away from the wreckage. We saw again the fall of the twin towers, the collapse of a section of the Pentagon, and we revisited a scarred patch of Pennsylvania earth .

Perhaps again we felt the shock, the sorrow, the anger. Perhaps again we feared when we heard of a skyscraper evacuated today in Columbus, Ohio.

We cannot face this anniversary in faith by shutting out the cruel truth of what happened one year ago. Three thousand and two people died. Perhaps ten thousand children lost a parent, many lost both parents. Some who died have never been recovered, including three-year-old Dana Falkenberg, a passenger on American Airline Flight 77, which struck the Pentagon. Her sister and both parents died, but some remains of them was found to bury.

No trace of Dana was found. She was not merely murdered, she was obliterated.

Some of the people of this church spent anxious hours a year ago trying to discover whether loved ones in New York might have been killed or hurt in the attacks. Others had family members in military service and got word by late evening that they had already deployed. We were gripped by an uncertainty of the future and a numbness of nearly overwhelming destruction.

It is no act of faith to shut these images and memories out. Faith remembers what was lost and how. Faith does not pretend violence and evil do not exist. Faith confronts and works through fear. Faith overcomes evil. Faith faces the future with confidence and assurance.

Faith prays.

A prayer service is no time for a sermon. The Psalmist wrote, "Be still, and know that I am God." We will be still now. I invite you to pray for yourselves now. You may go to the altar rail or remain in the pew. We will spend several minutes at this. It is a time to hear the Holy Spirit and to speak to God.

Prayers and the Eucharist

Closing hymn: Soldiers of Christ, Arise
Remembrance

When to the sessions of sweet silent thought
I summon up remembrance of things past,
I sigh the lack of many a thing I sought,
And with old woes new wail my dear time's waste;

Then can I drown an eye, unused to flow,
For precious friends hid in death's dateless night,
And weep afresh love's long-since-cancell'd woe,
And moan the expense of many a vanish'd sight.

Then can I grieve at grievances foregone,
And heavily from woe to woe tell o'er
The sad account of fore-bemoanèd moan,
Which I new pay as if not paid before:

But if the while I think on thee, dear friend,
All losses are restored, and sorrows end.

William Shakespeare

Monday, September 09, 2002

Lots of posting last night
I'll be out of town until Wednesday, check out these posts

I'll be out of computer contact at a workshop at Tennessee's Fall Creek Falls State Park from this morning until Wednesday morning. I don't plan on posting again until sometime Wednesday, perhaps Thursday.

In the meantime, please check out my responses to Senator Zell Miller's 10 questions for President Bush that I posted last night while watching the Cowboys get beat (always worth staying up to see).

Also, I posted some stuff earlier this morning - see below!

Meanwhile, the British stand fast
Canada runs away, but the Home Country shows resolve

The UK Observer reports,
Tony Blair issued a stark warning last night that he was ready to commit British troops to fight alongside US forces in a war against Iraq - even if other members of the United Nations were opposed to military action.

Signalling that strikes against Saddam Hussein were virtually inevitable, the Prime Minister stressed that 'inaction was not an option' and that Britain had a duty to act now to save civilians from the threat of weapons of mass destruction.
Canada cops out
Won't back US strike against Iraq

Canada's military deployment to Afghanistan was the largest combat mission its armed forces have undertaken since the Korean War. Canadian troops performed their duties with distinction there.

But Canada has copped out of challenging Saddam. Deputy Prime Minister said Sunday that Canada will not back the United States if it decides to launch a pre-emptive strike to oust Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.
Key Bush cabinet members say action against Iraq is urgently needed
Cheney, Powell and others launch media offensive to lay groundwork before Bush's 9/12 UN speech

Story here.
Al Qaeda guerrillas may go freelancing
Trained terrorists in place, may hit targets on their own

The Washington Post reports,
One year into America's war against al Qaeda, U.S. intelligence officials believe that the thousands of al Qaeda followers who have graduated from terror training camps in Afghanistan will try to launch their own rudimentary but deadly attacks.
US threatens Iraq with "annihilation"
Promises that Iraq's use of WMDs will mean end of Iraqi society

Today's Washington Times says that two US senators disclosed that the United States has warned Saddam that if he uses any weapon of mass destruction, American retaliation "would result 'not only in the annihilation' of Saddam, 'but of much of his society.'"

This is not a new policy. The same threat was delivered to Iraq's then foreign secretary, Tariq Aziz, in 1991 by US Secretary of State James Baker before the Gulf War.
SPECTRE is our future?
Worldwide terrorism and the enemy of James Bond compared

Joe Katzman draws some interesting comparisons between SPECTRE, the early enemy of James Bond, and terrorist organizations of today.
Blogspot is acting screwy again

I don't know what happened to my comments feature, and half the archives have disappeared.

Sunday, September 08, 2002

Let's play catch up to me!
Remembering Douglas MacArthur's dictum, "He who tooteth not his own horn, the same shall not be tooted."

Read this passage from the UPI's Martin Walker, dated Sept. 7 of this year:

Whether Europeans and Arabs like it nor not, Iraq will be getting not just a change of regime, but a change of system. There is a post 9-11 mood in Washington to ask why, with the kind of American resolve and wisdom that turned the World War II enemies of Japan and West Germany into peaceful and prosperous democracies, an Iraq liberated from Saddam Hussein, or a Palestinian state liberated from the corrupt incompetence of the Arafat gang, or an Afghanistan liberated from the Taliban, might not enjoy a similar transformation.

Now read this passage, part of a long paper I wrote the first week of October, 2001, preparing for my participation in a panel discussion on the terror attacks and their aftermath :

Finally, we may learn from the outstanding successes of the Marshall Plan in post-World War II Europe and the pacification of Japan under General Douglas MacArthur. Billions of dollars of US aid and work in Europe halted the westward march of communism by rebuilding the infrastructure and providing direct aid in the form of fuels, foodstuffs and other goods.

In Japan, MacArthur eliminated Japanese militarism first by emplacing a democratically-based constitution and second by liberating Japanese women from centuries of patriarchal oppression. He gave women the rights to vote and to serve in democratic assemblies and government offices, steps MacArthur saw as essential to ending Japanese military aggressiveness. America also bore the brunt of rebuilding Japan's economy and infrastructure.

Almost everywhere in the world where international terrorism grows we find poverty and human oppression, especially toward women. Tribalism and ethnic hatred also remain strong. We Americans are more free of these oppressions than almost any other people. We and our western allies must lead the way out for those people. It will take a new kind of national commitment. It will cost a fortune. It will require new kinds of armies, armies not of soldiers but of engineers, agriculturalists, financiers, administrators and educators.

It will take decades and there are no guarantees. But the alternative is to fight culture and religious wars generation after generation.


Next, read this entry and its links by Andrew Sullivan yesterday (Sept. 7):
The administration seems to be following the strategy I wrote about last Tuesday. Use the U.N. - but don't be used by it. The case is so strong we can afford to exhaust every single peaceful avenue, as long as we don't leave open the possibility of Saddam wriggling out of his obligations.

Now read this passage, that I wrote last May 13 (not "last Tuesday"):
There are existing UN conditions for unfettered inspections of Iraqi military and military-related facilities. These UN demands go back to the end of the Gulf War. Needless to say, they are not being done. I think the Bush administration will follow a strategy basically like this:
  • Tell NATO and the Arab countries that the USA needs no further justification for decisive war against Iraq, is capable of conducting the war entirely on its own if need be, and is ready to start any time.
  • But will hold off military action and join in demanding Iraq submit to the full inspection regime without delay if and only if the other nations agree that if Iraq fails to comply, a casus belli for decisive American military actions exists with no further debate.
  • When Saddam does not comply, use their non-compliance as the centerpiece of the casus belli both domestically and internationally.

As far as I know, no one broached either of these strategies earlier than I did. If you know of someone who did, please let me know and I will be glad to give credit.
Answers for Senator Zell Miller - index

Sen. Zell Miller, D.-Ga., has a piece in the Washington Post today asking the president 10 questions that he says his Georgia constituents have asked him about a potential campaign against Iraq. Herewith their questions and my attempt at answers, not on behalf of the administration, but only me.

Each answer is a separate posting, posted with the first question earliest. Here is the index.

(1) Even if Hussein has nukes, does he have the capability to reach New York or Los Angeles or Atlanta?

(2) The old Soviet Union had thousands of nuclear missiles for decades, many of them capable of reaching our major cities, and yet we didn't get into a war with the Soviets. The president needs to explain why Iraq is different.

(3) Who will join with us in this war and what share will they be willing to bear?

(4) What happens after we take out Hussein? How long will our soldiers be there? And, again, with whose help?

(5) There is concern about too much deployment. We've got our soldiers stationed all over the world. Someone needs to bring us up to date on where they all are, why they are there and how long our commitment to keep them there is.

(6) How does our plan in Iraq fit in with the whole Middle East question? How will it affect Israel? How will it affect our war on terrorism? Does taking Saddam out help or hurt that entire messy situation?

(7) At Mary Ann's Restaurant, Tony is all right. But Putin is not. Why are we putting so much trust in him? Is he still with us in the war on terrorism, or was that just so much talk at a photo op?

(8) The people at Mary Ann's know very well who fights our wars -- the kids from the middle-class and blue-collar homes of America. Kids like their grandchildren. They want to hear the president say that he knows and understands that.

(9) Forgive my bluntness, but these folks also want to hear the president and the vice president say that this war is not about oil.

(10) They also want to hear an explanation of why we didn't take care of this in the Persian Gulf War, and why it is on our doorstep again so soon.

Answers for Senator Zell Miller - installment 10
Tenth in a series, series begins here, here is index

Sen. Zell Miller, D.-Ga., has a piece in the Washington Post today asking the president some questions that he says his Georgia constituents have asked him about a potential campaign against Iraq. Herewith their questions and my attempt at answers, not on behalf of the administration, but only me.

(10) They also want to hear an explanation of why we didn't take care of this in the Persian Gulf War, and why it is on our doorstep again so soon.

In 1991, the United States worked almost wholly within an international coalition of more than three dozen nations to eject Iraq's army from Kuwait. The first Bush administration sought and received authorization from the United Nations to forcibly eject Iraq from Kuwait after Iraq ignored the UN's ultimatum. In 1991, the entire US foreign policy regarding Iraq was coordinated with the UN and an extensive list of other nations.

At no time did the UN or any other country accept the idea of a "regime change" in Iraq as a coalition goal or conquering Iraq. The UN's conditions for using military force against Iraq basically authorized only force to eject Iraq's army from Kuwait, and that's all.

The president's request to Congress to use military force against Iraq in January 1991 did not ask for any Congressional authorization beyond the conditions set by the UN. This request was barely passed by Congress.

Senator Miller's constituents on the one hand seem squeamish about going it alone. They want to know what other nations will do to help out. On the other hand they complain that we are still dealing with an 11-year-old mess.

In 1991 we subsumed our national objectives to what the "international community" (whatever the heck that is) would approve and support. Since then, we have permitted the UN to set the rules for dealing with Saddam. The UN established a rigid inspection routine, Saddam foiled it, and nothing happened. Now Saddam is stronger than ever.

Eleven years after a coalition-fought, UN-approved, very limited campaign against Iraq, Saddam is more dangerous than ever.

Why didn't we take care of this problem in the Gulf War? Because we wouldn't go it alone.

Answers for Senator Zell Miller - installment 9
Ninth in a series, series begins here, here is index

Sen. Zell Miller, D.-Ga., has a piece in the Washington Post today asking the president some questions that he says his Georgia constituents have asked him about a potential campaign against Iraq. Herewith their questions and my attempt at answers, not on behalf of the administration, but only me.

(9) Forgive my bluntness, but these folks also want to hear the president and the vice president say that this war is not about oil.

Iraq exports oil under controls established by the United Nations after the Gulf War in the "Oil for Food" program. The oil Iraq exports under this program is sold on the international open market. Currently, the United States buys more than two-thirds of Iraq's oil, but this accounts for less than four percent of the oil America imports. So the US is certainly not starved for Iraqi oil, nor is Iraqi oil singularly significant in America's total oil production and importation. (We buy more oil from the either Norway or Nigeria than Iraq.)

According to the American Petroleum Institute:

About half of the oil we consume is produced here in the United States. The rest is imported. Of the oil we import, 51 percent comes from other nations in the Western Hemisphere, 21 percent from the Middle East, 18 percent from Africa and 11 percent from other countries. API provides a variety of studies on this topic in the Industry Statistics section of this website.
Actually, the US imports almost as much oil from Canada alone than from all the Persian Gulf countries. Furthermore, the API states that at the current rate of consumption, current proven reserves will last at least 63 years and perhaps as many as 95 years. The US Geological Survey estimates that the earth still holds as much as 2.1 trillion barrels of oil.

There is no shortage of oil.

Answers for Senator Zell Miller - installment 8
Eighth in a series, series begins here, here is index

Sen. Zell Miller, D.-Ga., has a piece in the Washington Post today asking the president some questions that he says his Georgia constituents have asked him about a potential campaign against Iraq. Herewith their questions and my attempt at answers, not on behalf of the administration, but only me.

(8) The people at Mary Ann's know very well who fights our wars -- the kids from the middle-class and blue-collar homes of America. Kids like their grandchildren. They want to hear the president say that he knows and understands that.

Whom do the senator's constituents think will die in the next terrorist attacks against American cities? I'd say, "kids like their grandchildren."

I want the voters to say that they know and understand that.

Answers for Senator Zell Miller - installment 7
Seventh in a series, series begins here, here is index

Sen. Zell Miller, D.-Ga., has a piece in the Washington Post today asking the president some questions that he says his Georgia constituents have asked him about a potential campaign against Iraq. Herewith their questions and my attempt at answers, not on behalf of the administration, but only me.

(7) At Mary Ann's Restaurant, Tony is all right. But Putin is not. Why are we putting so much trust in him? Is he still with us in the war on terrorism, or was that just so much talk at a photo op?

Remember that Russia is no longer communist but is still a major nuclear power and is the major land power in Europe, militarily. Russian is vast, stretching from Europe to the Pacific. Its people have historic and often ethnic ties to many of the nations near central and southwest Asia, where the focus of our anti-terrorist efforts lie. Russia's democracy is very young, and the nation has never been democratic before, so democracy there may still be fragile.

It is in America's best interests in the near and short term to strengthen democracy in Russia and to cement its ties to the West. While Russia's military is not presently as powerful as the old USSR was, its potential military power is enormous. Also, its natural resources are enormous, including petroleum. (We buy more oil from Russia than from Saudi Arabia.) Russia's economic potential is enormous, and it is in America's interests that they develop and exercise that power in ways friendly to the US.

Russia has a superbly-trained class of professionals - engineers, designers and scientists of every stripe. A Russian government closely aligned with the West is much less likely to accept contracts for scientitifc or engineering work from countries unfriendly to us that could be used against us.

Putin is not the point. Russia is the point. We have to find the best balance of incentives or disincentives that will lead Russia to become more closely aligned with the West.

Answers for Senator Zell Miller - installment 6
Sixth in a series, series begins here, here is index

Sen. Zell Miller, D.-Ga., has a piece in the Washington Post today asking the president some questions that he says his Georgia constituents have asked him about a potential campaign against Iraq. Herewith their questions and my attempt at answers, not on behalf of the administration, but only me.

(6) How does our plan in Iraq fit in with the whole Middle East question? How will it affect Israel? How will it affect our war on terrorism? Does taking Saddam out help or hurt that entire messy situation?

Iraq is the only Muslim country in the Middle East that has invaded Muslim neighbors, Iran and Kuwait. (Syria and Egypt three times invaded Israel and were repulsed each time, at great cost to Israel.) Iraq is the only country that has a robust WMD program. Iraq is the only country that is ruled by a megalomaniac. All the Arab nations are ruled by absolutist governments, or worse, but only Saddam has a demonstrated desire and means to conquer them.

Israel will be in danger if we move militarily against Saddam now. But the danger will never be less than now, only greater. I am sure we are in constant consultation with Israel over Iraq, and if war comes we will move quickly to reduce the danger to Israel as much as possible. But in honesty, the danger to Israel from Iraq cannot be eliminated except by the fall of the Saddam and the emplacement of a non-aggressive government in Baghdad.

It is time to get past the paralyzing FOTA syndrome - Fear Of The Alternative. We have reached the point where almost any alternative cannot be more fearful than the present status quo. If we move against Iraq, we must move decisively, conclusively and completely. As "messy" as the situation is, replacing Saddam's war-loving regime with a peaceful one cannot make the area more war prone or violent. There simply is no overall down side to Saddam's removal.

Answers for Senator Zell Miller - installment 5
Fifth in a series, series begins here, here is index

Sen. Zell Miller, D.-Ga., has a piece in the Washington Post today asking the president some questions that he says his Georgia constituents have asked him about a potential campaign against Iraq. Herewith their questions and my attempt at answers, not on behalf of the administration, but only me.

(5) There is concern about too much deployment. We've got our soldiers stationed all over the world. Someone needs to bring us up to date on where they all are, why they are there and how long our commitment to keep them there is.

Well, see the answer to number 4.

Our objective in deploying our troops is to make sure that threats against America are ended. That is our commitment. We will maintain troops there, probably in rotation, as long as that takes.

Answers for Senator Zell Miller - installment 4
Fourth in a series, series begins here, here is index

Sen. Zell Miller, D.-Ga., has a piece in the Washington Post today asking the president some questions that he says his Georgia constituents have asked him about a potential campaign against Iraq. Herewith their questions and my attempt at answers, not on behalf of the administration, but only me.

(4) What happens after we take out Hussein? How long will our soldiers be there? And, again, with whose help?

We are already working with the Iraqi National Congress and other Iraqi groups that oppose Saddam to shape post-Saddam Iraq. We will work to emplace, train and support a democratic government there.

Make no mistake: this endeavor will not be an expeditionary one. American troops will be in Iraq for a long time. We don't know how long. It will be expensive in both lives and treasure.

In 1941 we did not ask these questions because we knew the extraordinary danger to our nation posed by the Japanese Empire and Nazi Germany. They attacked us with conventional armies and weapons. Today there is no nation that hope to prevail against us in conventional warfare. But we still have enemies who pose extraordinary danger to us. Three thousand of our fellows perished a year ago at their hands, 700 more than the Japanese killed at Pearl Harbor, who were all military personnel. But our dead of this war are almost all civilians who had no inkling that they were marked for death.

AL Qaeda spokesman Suleiman Abu Gheith wrote last June 21:

We have the right to kill four million Americans - two million of them children - and to exile twice as many and wound and cripple hundreds of thousands. Furthermore, it is our right to fight them with chemical and biological weapons.

World War II ended with clearcut, decisive victories over Japan and Germany, yet 57 years later US forces remain in both countries. I cannot imagine President Franklin Roosevelt worrying on Dec. 8, 1941, how long American troops would remain in Japan or Germany once the war ended, nor any member of Congress protesting that such information was necessary.

You need to understand something: our present enemies want to kill us. Japan bombed Pearl Harbor to prevent the US from impeding its hegemony over greater East Asia. Saddam wants to establish hegemony over the entire Middle East and is developing WMDs to employ against anyone who stands in his way, including America. Al Qaeda's intentions are clear: they simply want to kill as many Americans as possible. They have said so over and over.

After the end of World War II, Europeans discovered that in 1925 Hitler had laid out his plans in detail in his book, Mein Kampf. Hitler's plans, including his hatred of the Jews and his desire to exterminate them, as well as his plan to invade the east and destroy the populations there, had literally been an open book for 14 years before the war.

The aims of Osama bin Laden and his allies are also an open book. They have made their objectives explicitly clear, over and over, in their interviews, their writings and their clerics' announcements: they want to kill as many Americans as possible and destroy as many structures as possible that are most valued by Americans. That is their goal - it is their only goal. Their murderous violence is not a means to another end. Destruction is itself their end. They have said so themselves. Intelligence services and diplomats of moderate Arab states have made it clear that if and when al Qaeda obtains atomic weapons, they absolutely will use them to kill Americans.

The stakes are far too high even to ask questions such as how long will it take or when will the troops come home. The very lives of perhaps millions of Americans are at risk.

Answers for Senator Zell Miller - installment 3
Third in a series, series begins here, here is index

Sen. Zell Miller, D.-Ga., has a piece in the Washington Post today asking the president some questions that he says his Georgia constituents have asked him about a potential campaign against Iraq. Herewith their questions and my attempt at answers, not on behalf of the administration, but only me.

(3) Who will join with us in this war and what share will they be willing to bear?
(There was also some grumbling about our boys in Afghanistan "just doing guard duty" to protect those warlords.)

Great Britain has already pledged its support with troops. The Dutch parliament has voted to support the US against Iraq.

But even if no other country assisted us, the danger Saddam presents against the United States would be unchanged. Because Saddam sees the US as his main enemy, we must defend ourselves with or without assistance. It would be good to have the aid of other nations, but it is not essential. This country was born from patriots who understood the necessity of going it alone if they must. The men at Concord bridge, the Continental Congress and George Washington did not wonder what other nations would assist them in gaining independence. They went it alone because there was no other way to ensure our freedom.

We today are no less courageous and determined than they.

Answers for Senator Zell Miller - installment 2
Second in a series, series begins here, here is index

Sen. Zell Miller, D.-Ga., has a piece in the Washington Post today asking the president some questions that he says his Georgia constituents have asked him about a potential campaign against Iraq. Herewith their questions and my attempt at answers, not on behalf of the administration, but only me.

(2) The old Soviet Union had thousands of nuclear missiles for decades, many of them capable of reaching our major cities, and yet we didn't get into a war with the Soviets. The president needs to explain why Iraq is different.
The WMD threats presented by Saddam are different than those the USSR presented. Not only that, but the absolutism Saddam exercises was never gained by any Soviet leader, not even Stalin.

In the USSR, the government had a system of checks and balances made up of the Communist Party, the KGB and the military. Technically, the KGB and the military were subordinate to the Party, but in reality, both were very powerful in the own right. There is not enought room here to discuss how this came to be or how the balance was maintained, but the fact is that after Stalin died, all three centers of power determined that no Soviet leader would ever enjoy the same degree of authority that Stalin did. The USSR's nuclear capabilities were developed after Stalin died. So right off the bat, Saddam's situation is different because Saddam is the absolute dictator of his country. There are no checks and balances in Iraq serving to constrain him. He long ago killed off his opposition.

Despite the USSR's brutality and expansionism, it never employed its WMDs against its enemies. It developed an effective system of command and control of WMDs to guard against accidental or anuathorized use. The USSR entered negotiations with NATO nations to reduce the chances of conflict. The US and the USSR exchanged military liaisons and ultimately, inspections by US military experts to ensure that disarmament was being carried out as agreed. The USSR and the US established a "hotline" between the seats of their governments early in the nuclear age to lessen tensions and provide direct communications between the president and the Soviet general secretary. Needless to say, no such system exists with Iraq.

Finally, the USSR's expansionism sprang from its desire to spread its ideology across the world. Because the Soviets wanted everyone to convert to communism, they did not seek simply to kill them. The struggle between the US and the USSR was, foundationally, a struggle of ideas and political philosophies that the West finally won.

On the other hand, Saddam has no ideology other than expanding his personal power. He is not a rabid Muslim fundamentalist wanting to convert the world to Islam. He has no political ideology that he wants other nations to adopt. He is simply a megalomaniac whose for two decades has killed all who oppose him.

The danger from the USSR was that of direct, devastating attack, but this danger was low because the Soviets never wanted to be in war against us. The danger of direct, devastating attack against us by Saddam is also low, but the danger of indirect, less destructive attacks is higher. He is already at war against us. He may elect to attack the US by proxy rather than directly. A more robust WMD capability than he now has would increase the danger against us.

Answers for Senator Zell Miller - installment 1
First in a series, here is index

Sen. Zell Miller, D.-Ga., has a piece in the Washington Post today asking the president some questions that he says his Georgia constituents have asked him about a potential campaign against Iraq. Herewith their questions and my attempt at answers, not on behalf of the administration, but only me.

(1) Even if Hussein has nukes, does he have the capability to reach New York or Los Angeles or Atlanta?

Not with an atomic bomb. Presently, Iraq has no aircraft or missile that can reach the united states with any kind of munition, nor is there a realistic chance that it would have such a system in the foreseeable future.

The danger from Iraq's nuclear program directly to the USA is not that an Iraqi bomber might fly over Atlanta. It is that Saddam may provide terrorists with atomic munitions that could be smuggled into the US, disassembled into components. If Saddam knows that his nuclear program is safe inside Iraq, he may be content to smuggle atomic components into the US over several months. Alternatively, a terrorist organization such as al Qaeda might attempt to smuggle bomb components into American nearly simultaneously, but by different routes. The fact is that the coastlines and borders of our country cannot be sealed. Only if we had excellent intelligence would we have a decent chance of preventing such smuggling.

The potential of Saddam using proxies to smuggle radioactive material into the US to be used as a dirty bomb is even greater. A very simple bomb, such as the type used by Timothy McVeigh in Oklahoma City, laced with radioactive material, would spread radiation over wide areas. Although it would not cause near the fatalities that an atomic bomb would, as a terror weapon it would be very successful. The deaths, damage and economic costs of such a weapon would be very great.

An atomic-armed Iraq would easily dominate all its neighbors. he could again swallow Kuwait or other Gulf states. Me might renew war against Iran, against whom he used chemical weapons in their war of the 1980s. Saudi Arabia would perhaps face an Iraqi ultimatum. Saddam has already attacked Israel with missiles, back in 1991. Israel is the only democracy in the region and has been a staunch ally since its founding. With Saddam in possession of atomic weapons, the danger of total war against Israel would be fearfully great. The entire Middle East could become embroiled in the most destructive war there ever. This risk is not acceptable.

You may say that no rational man would do such things. I think that the past 20 years of Saddam's rule show rationality is not his strong suit.

Saturday, September 07, 2002

My terror attacks anniversary sermon

Today is my 47th birthday and I am spending it with my family. So this is the only posting for today. It is an advance look at my sermon for tomorrow. like most United Methodist churches, we will commemorate the first anniversary of the terrorist attacks tomorrow. Here is what I will preach:

John 8:3-7
3 The teachers of the law and the Pharisees brought in a woman caught in adultery. They made her stand before the group
4 and said to Jesus, "Teacher, this woman was caught in the act of adultery.
5 In the Law Moses commanded us to stone such women. Now what do you say?"
6 They were using this question as a trap, in order to have a basis for accusing him. But Jesus bent down and started to write on the ground with his finger.
7 When they kept on questioning him, he straightened up and said to them, "If any one of you is without sin, let him be the first to throw a stone at her."

The Miss Universe pageant is to be held in November in Nigeria. Nigeria is a country riven with violence between radical Muslims and more moderate ones. The government is not wholly in charge of the country. Last week, Miss France and Miss Belgium withdrew from the competition, joining contestants from Denmark, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Norway and Togo, who have already announced that they will not go to Nigeria.

All the ladies have withdrawn to protest the case of a Nigerian woman named Amina Lawal, 30, who was sentenced in March by an Islamic court to be stoned to death for giving birth out of wedlock. The court insisted that stoning was required by the dictates of Sharia, the name for Islamic law based on the Quran. Islamic law is enforced by some northern Nigerian states, where radical Islamism flourishes. Miss Lawal's appeal was rejected last month, but the court ruled that her execution would not take place until January, 2004, when the baby will be two.

I hope we will not sugarcoat what happened last September 11. I hope we will not turn this anniversary recognition into some saccharine, syrupy time where Americans compete with each other over how bad they feel. Canadian author Mark Steyn wrote that we must not "Dianafy" this anniversary, referring to the weepy moroseness surrounding the Princess' death. I agree. I am afraid that anyone looking for nothing but a time to sniffle and feel sad here today will be disappointed. We can never honor the memory of our dead by simply feeling bad. We must remember those who died, yes, but also remember that they did not die for no reason. They were deliberately and coldly murdered for reasons most foul, by Arab Islamists who still say they wish to do even worse.

What is at stake in the outcome of the war that was thrust upon us a year ago?

Obviously, lives are at stake, perhaps your lives or mine, since we do not whether or when or where the al Qaeda terrorists may strike next. But that's not all. Our freedom is at stake, including our freedom to follow Christ (or not).

Last June 21 the chief spokesman for al Qaeda, Suleiman Abu Gheith published a three-part article that delineated their reasons for the attacks and their intentions regarding the United States. Al Qaeda considers itself the bearer of the only true Islam. So, wrote Gheith, referring to the true Muslim man:

How can [a true Muslim] possibly [accept humiliation and inferiority] when he knows that his nation was created to stand at the center of leadership, at the center of hegemony and rule, at the center of ability and sacrifice? How can [he] possibly [accept humiliation and inferiority] when he knows that the [divine] rule is that the entire earth must be subject to the religion of Allah - not to the East, not to the West - to no ideology and to no path except for the path of Allah?

We have the right to kill four million Americans - two million of them children - and to exile twice as many and wound and cripple hundreds of thousands. Furthermore, it is our right to fight them with chemical and biological weapons.


The war we are in is literally a religious war, at least on one side. Our enemy is not Islam as a whole, because Islam as a whole does not oppose us. Our foes are violent radical Islamists, almost all of whom are Arabs. However, the majority of Muslims are neither Arabs nor radical. Our foes want to turn the entire world into what Afghanistan was before America liberated it this year.

In Islamic states the secular and the religious are indistinguishable. But the distinction between secular and religious are essential for the way the West works and for the freedoms Westerners enjoy, including our freedom of religion.

Nowhere is this difference between Islamism and the West more profound than in the concept of law and society, the very point of contention between Nigeria and the beauty pageant. Sharia law intends to compel everyone to think and act the same. Sharia attempts to eliminate differences among people by enforcing uniformity of lifestyle and conduct.

Western law, despite its adversarial nature, is structured to ensure that contending parties can have their differences accommodated rather than eliminated. That is why compromise is such an important part of Western law and politics.

Christianity strongly influenced this facet of Western culture. Human freedom has always been a central characteristic of Jewish and Christian faiths. The religious endorsement of freedom restrained the formation of unrestrained political power among the West's political rulers. Even the most dictatorial Western monarch did not achieve the ruthless absolutism of kings and emperors in most of the rest of the world.

Europeans of four hundred years ago were not politically free in the sense that we now think of freedom. But by then the distinction between the authority of the secular state and the authority of religious leaders had become well defined. Civil law ceased to make religious demands on its subjects. The separation of church and state was also driven by the fact that Christianity was beset by denominationalism and schisms that were deeper than any in the political arena.

The result was that Christian leaders and political leaders came to have separate arenas of responsibility and authority. This process took centuries but its achievement was made certain by the Protestant Reformation. Martin Luther, the chief figure of the European Reformation, developed a theology of "Two Kingdoms," in which he delineated the roles of political and spiritual authority. He held them to be complementary, not competitive, but with separate responsibilities and authority.

By the time of the American revolution, religion was so legally marginalized from the regulation of daily civil affairs that when speaking of the canons of the faith, one had to say, "church law" to distinguish it from secular law. One's religion ceased to have serious sway over treatment before civil magistrates. The common object of loyalty of a Western nation's citizens was not a religion, but the nation. The law bound the citizens together into a common political heritage that protected their rights. None of this was absolutely true anywhere, and the effect was not uniform across all the nations of the West, but it was sufficiently true everywhere in the West to make a distinctive kind of society and politics replicated nowhere else on earth, save where Westerners spread it. Freedom and the entire concept of human rights are Western inventions, fueled by Christianity.

However, in Islamic states, meaning most Arab states, this kind of arrangement is not true to a meaningful degree. Arab nations' law, with few exceptions, is Sharia, which does not recognize that there could be any law apart from Islam. Sharia is universal and binds all Muslims everywhere. Sharia admits of no theoretical limits in regulating human affairs and denies that any secular law can limit it. Hence, a Muslim cleric in Holland recently called upon Muslims there to rebel against Dutch authority, and some Muslim clerics in Britain declared that no British Muslim, even if an actual British subject, could in faith obey British law when it conflicted with Sharia, and that British Muslims in the armed forces were obligated to mutiny rather than fight in Afghanistan.

Under Sharia, the state is not an independent object of loyalty. Submission is first obligated to Allah and then to individuals or groups depending on how closely one if affiliated or related with them. Moreover, Sharia is verbal, not written. Sharia rulings are made by applying the teachings of the Quran to particular situations. Sharia usually is claimed to be identical to the will of Allah. To disobey the edicts of the Sharia is to risk the wrath of Allah.

Sharia thus makes no accommodation of differences as does Western law. The discipline of the Quran is considered binding upon all people everywhere, including non-Muslims. But creativity and invention result from differences, not similarities ? thus, most Arab lands have been marked by intellectual stagnation and non-creativity for several hundred years. That is not the fault of Islam per se because for the first few hundred years that Islam sway over what is now modern Syria, Lebanon, Israel and Jordan, Muslim intellectualism and civilization was the highest in the world.

Western law intends to keep civil peace over all the territory where it holds sway. Personal religious beliefs are not relevant to the workings of the law, because religious beliefs are not the point of the law. In Islam, though, religion is the only point of the law. Compromise is not a feature of Sharia because you cannot compromise with Allah; you can only submit or disobey. Only when everyone submits to Allah can there be peace, but until then conflict is both inevitable and desirable between Muslims and non-Muslims. This is what the radical Islamists say.

When one's world view thus shuts out compromise, negotiation as a means of settling disputes is ruled out. After all, the enemy of Islam is an enemy of Allah, which no one has the right to be. Sharia denies that the another way of ordering society can possibly be valid. We believe that the state has no business in what religion, if any, citizens follow. But our enemies say that the state's basic function is to ensure that everyone submits to Islam. Freedom is impermissible on its face. So they deny that we have a right to maintain our system, we may only have, at the moment, the power to maintain it.

For those men (they are all men), negotiating with non-Muslims only admits of weakness; if one is stronger, one simply prevails. Therefore negotiation is done only when there is no alternative, and then only to bide time for resumption of the struggle later.

Now, what exactly to make of all this I am not sure. But I do think that we really, really need to think outside the box about our present struggle. I am increasingly concluding that long-term peaceful co-existence between most of the Arab world and the West is not possible as long as each side is ordered its current way. Wrenching social, legal and perhaps religious transformations of the most fundamental kind are in order for one of us. And I want it to be them, not us.

The Jews stoned adulteresses to death from time to time two thousand years ago, and Christianity sprang from Judaism. Yet Christians have never done it, nor have Jews for many centuries. Why not? The answer is that rigid legalism to the letter of the law has never been central to Christianity or Judaism. Hence, law did not become instruments of oppression, even though some religious and secular authorities tried to make it so at various times. Some men confronted Jesus with an undeniably guilty woman but they dropped their rocks without protest when Jesus spoke a single sentence. Jesus made them remember that the heart of Jewish law was not judicial rigidity, but mercy and reconciliation. Jesus was known more than once to have quoted the prophet Hosea, who said, "I desire mercy, not sacrifice, and acknowledgment of God rather than burnt offerings" (Hosea 6:6 NIV).

We long ago came to understand that right relationship with God is chiefly a matter of the heart, an inward transformation, rather than matter of the hand, outward conduct. God is love, and right relationship with both God and other people depends on making the love of God our own.

In Leviticus God told the Hebrews, "‘Do not seek revenge or bear a grudge against one of your people, but love your neighbor as yourself" (Lev 19:18 NIV).

Jesus taught, "‘Love the Lord your God with all your heart and with all your soul and with all your mind.’ This is the first and greatest commandment. And the second is like it: ‘Love your neighbor as yourself’"(Matt 22:37-39 NIV).

Love requires freedom. Love cannot be mandated or required; it can only be encouraged. The risk of human freedom is that some people will never accept the love of God and therefore will not share godly love with others. Even so, the obligation of God’s people is to enhance human freedom and multiply God’s love, an obligation we extend even toward our enemies.

St. Paul gets the last word on this:

19 Do not take revenge, my friends, but leave room for God's wrath, for it is written: "It is mine to avenge; I will repay," says the Lord.

20 On the contrary: "If your enemy is hungry, feed him; if he is thirsty, give him something to drink. In doing this, you will heap burning coals on his head."

21 Do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good.
(Rom 12:19_21)

Friday, September 06, 2002

Iraq's WMD threat summarized
Yes, Saddam really is a murderous madman

Instapundit (link at left) provides a link to a Scotsman.com article that offers a detailed and frightening summary of Iraq's mad rush to develop atomic, biological and chemical weapons. It is a must read.
Notes from Johannesburg

The Wall Street Journal's John Fund has an excellent analysis of the recent Johannesburg summit and its mass hypocrisy:
The air of unreality that hangs over Western policy toward Africa and the entire developing world came into vivid relief during the summit. Mr. Louw, a crusader for black entrepreneurs since the days of apartheid, helped organize a protest of 1,000 street vendors who had been swept from their posts as preparations for the conference intensified. "These people are the direct victims of the summit," he told me. "They have been cleaned off the streets as if they were litter." Worse yet, Mr. Louw believes summit attendees then spent their 10 days in a "Disneyfied" Johannesburg "launching an eco-imperialism that is far more insidious than any form of colonialism."

Colin Powell need not be shocked at either the jeers that he faced or the cheers that greeted Robert Mugabe. The World Summit on Sustainable Development wasn't about helping the world's poor. The summiteers' real aim was to put spoiled socialist wine into new green bottles.

Thursday, September 05, 2002

Carter has a lot of brass to criticize Pres. Bush's human rights record
As president, Carter was friend of dictators and murderers

Glenn Reynolds took a different angle on Jimmy Carter's WaPo op-ed piece today than I did earlier. Glenn sees the piece as a tour de force for the Bush administration:

With Carter's abject record of humiliating failure in dealing with middle-eastern rogue states, there's only upside for Bush in having Carter on the other side. This op-ed will produce no new opposition to the war, as everyone capable of being convinced by Jimmy Carter on this issue is already against the war anyway. For everyone else, it's a reminder of what the politics of appeasement look like, and where they lead.

But there is another angle I'd liike to discuss. It's springs from this part of Carter's op-ed piece:
Formerly admired almost universally as the preeminent champion of human rights, our country has become the foremost target of respected international organizations concerned about these basic principles of democratic life. We have ignored or condoned abuses in nations that support our anti-terrorism effort, while detaining American citizens as "enemy combatants," incarcerating them secretly and indefinitely without their being charged with any crime or having the right to legal counsel. This policy has been condemned by the federal courts, but the Justice Department seems adamant, and the issue is still in doubt. Several hundred captured Taliban soldiers remain imprisoned at Guantanamo Bay under the same circumstances, with the defense secretary declaring that they would not be released even if they were someday tried and found to be innocent. These actions are similar to those of abusive regimes that historically have been condemned by American presidents.

But not condemned by President Carter, only by ex-president Carter.

President Carter's record on human rights was pretty poor. Jimmy Carter and Human Rights: Behind the Media Myth, from 1994, claims he failed to promote democracy and freedom while he was president, even though that was a stated goal of his administration. An excerpt:

During his presidency, Carter proclaimed human rights to be "the soul of our foreign policy." Although many journalists promoted that image, the reality was quite different.

Inaugurated 13 months after Indonesia's December 1975 invasion of East Timor, Carter stepped up U.S. military aid to the Jakarta regime as it continued to murder Timorese civilians. By the time Carter left office, about 200,000 people had been slaughtered by the regime Carter supported.

Elsewhere, despotic allies -- from Ferdinand Marcos of the Philippines to the Shah of Iran -- received support from President Carter.

In El Salvador, the Carter administration provided key military aid to a brutal regime. In Nicaragua, contrary to myth, Carter backed dictator Anastasio Somoza almost until the end of his reign. In Guatemala -- again contrary to enduring myth -- major U.S. military shipments to bloody tyrants never ended.

After moving out of the White House in early 1981, Carter developed a reputation as an ex-president with a conscience. He set about building homes for the poor. And when he traveled to hot spots abroad, news media often depicted Carter as a skillful negotiator on behalf of human rights.

But a decade after Carter left the Oval Office, scholar James Petras assessed the ex-president's actions overseas -- and found that Carter's image as "a peace mediator, impartial electoral observer and promoter of democratic values...clashes with the experiences of several democratic Third World leaders struggling against dictatorships and pro-U.S. clients."

From Latin America to East Africa, Petras wrote, Carter functioned as "a hard-nosed defender of repressive state apparatuses, a willing consort to electoral frauds, an accomplice to U.S. Embassy efforts to abort popular democratic outcomes and a one-sided mediator."

Observing the 1990 election in the Dominican Republic, Carter ignored fraud that resulted in the paper-thin victory margin of incumbent president Joaquin Balaguer. Announcing that Balaguer's bogus win was valid, Carter used his prestige to give international legitimacy to the stolen election -- and set the stage for a rerun this past spring, when Balaguer again used fraud to win re-election.

In December 1990, Carter traveled to Haiti, where he labored to undercut Jean-Bertrand Aristide during the final days of the presidential race. According to a top Aristide aide, Carter predicted that Aristide would lose, and urged him to concede defeat. (He ended up winning 67 percent of the vote.)

Since then, Carter has developed a warm regard for Haiti's bloodthirsty armed forces. Returning from his recent mission to Port-au-Prince, Carter actually expressed doubt that the Haitian military was guilty of human rights violations.


So there you go - typical hypocrisy from the left, even from a former American president.

The left-wing of the Church is at it again
Brit clerics call potential campaign against Iraq "wicked and foolhardy";
have their heads planted firmly "where the sun don't shine"

The UK Telegraph reports that Britain's two most senior churchmen are leading the pack of leftist clerics seeking to preserve the regime of Saddam Hussein.

In an article in The Times today the Archbishop of Westminster, Cardinal Cormac Murphy-O?Connor, writes that a war would have grave consequences, possibly setting the Arab world against the West. The Archbishop of Canterbury, Dr George Carey, has also raised his concerns in a private letter to the Prime Minister.

Their interventions are the latest in a number by bishops opposed to action against Iraq - and their comments are increasingly irritating the Government and its advisers. One official said that remarks from some senior clerics suggested they regarded Saddam Hussein as liberal-minded. . . .
The Right Rev Thomas McMahon, one of four Catholic bishops who signed a Pax Christi petition handed to Mr Blair last month, said a strike against Iraq would be "wicked and foolhardy."


But here's the kicker. Dr Eamon Duffy, Fellow and President of Magdalen College, Oxford, and president of the Catholic Theological Association, said,
"If the democratic West is to retain moral credibility and if we are to avoid a murderous confrontation with an Islamic world radicalised by poverty and resentment of Western imperialism, then we have to move beyond defending our interests and punishing our enemies. We need to demonstrate our desire to share the freedoms and prosperities we enjoy with the world?s poor."

I would suggest that concern for the Islamic poor is not at all on Dr. Duffy's mind or soul. He is not pro-poor; he is anti-West. That substantial numbers of people in the Islamic world are "radicalized" by poverty is very much in doubt. Most of the al Qaeda members seem to be men of some means, often with high education credentials. That there are many poor people in Islamic countries is unquestioned, but they seem not to be radicalized by their poverty. Political radicalism is literally a luxury that only the well to do can afford.

"Western imperialism" is a code phrase, of course, for the United States in all its manisfestations. We had a brief flirtation with imperialism during the Spanish-American War, then withdrew into traditional American isolationism. Great Britain was a true imperialist superpower until the end of World War II, but its imperial history draws little ire from the left these days.

What has radicalized many Arabs and some other Muslims is not American "imperialism," but a combination of religious fundamentalism and their own national governments that range from merely oppressive to downright murderous. Almost all the Arab governments operate not for the benefit of their people, but for the ruling classes. The real causes of poverty are not rooted in the politics or actions of Western governments, but in the corruption of third-world governments generally and the "economic colonialism" of the Western left (an African writer's phrase), which precisely seeks to prevent what Duffy says he wants: sharing our freedoms and prosperities with the world's poor. Case in point: Africans are today starving by the millions not because we imperalistic Americans are selfish, but because people like Dr. Duffy work hard as they can to stop us from giving food to the starving people.

If we are to share our freedoms with the world's poor, a good place to start is Iraq. Note well that President Bush and Prime Minister Blair have never said that their objective is to make war on Iraq; they have said only that Saddam must be deposed. A "regime change" must take place because only then can Iraq's march toward nuclear weapons and other WMDs be stopped. Maybe this can be accomplished without war (doubtful) but the point is that war, in itself, is not the point.

Freedom does not exist apart from a political system, a fact so basic that only a left-wing Church cleric could be ignorant of it. Suppose we decide to do what Dr. Duffy wants and share our freedoms with, say, the people of Saudi Arabia, most of whom are not wealthy, wealth being reserved for the Corleone-like family that runs the country. The only way we can do that is to engineer a freedom-preserving government there. Pray, Dr. Duffy, please tell us how to do that in Saudi Arabia. Or Syria. Or Sudan. Or Pakistan. Or Zimbabwe. Or . . . well, you get the point.

The fact is that Western governments, and only Western governments, preserve the freedoms of their people. Not all Western governments are located in Europe or North America. I would count Japan's government as basically Western, and India's and Indonesia's as semi-Western. Some Latin American nations are, too. I think Honduras, for example, is mostly free and democratic even though very poor (I have lived there and found the people honest, hard-working and delightful to know).

We have attempted in the past to "share or freedoms and prosperity" with the world's poor, with almost universal dismal results. The reason: we permitted the corrupt governments of the poor to call the shots. However, altruism was not always our guiding light - the Cold War's power struggles did much to shape what we did and where and when, meaning that holding the USSR at bay often took precedence over helping the poor. But today the USSR is gone, we are still here, and only we have the economic and spiritual power (yes!) to truly help the world's poor henceforth. Had the USSR won the Cold War, what would have become of the world's poor? They would have been crushed under the iron heel of the communist boot. Just ask a Ukrainian kulak how the poor fare under a communist government.

The oppressive governments crushing the world's poor today will not relinquish power willingly. But we certainly cannot and should not go round just making war against them merely to liberate the poor, as desirable as their liberation may be. So what should we do?

That is what Dr. Duffy and the rest of the left cannot answer. Their thinking is only bumper-sticker deep. They have platitudes, but no plan.

Put a B-52 patrol over Baghdad round the clock
Would be effective psywar tool

During the Cold War, the US Air Force maintained round-the-clock flights of EC-135 airborne command post, fully staffed, commanded by a general officer, ready to take over command and control of America's arsenal if the Strategic Air Command's underground command center was destroyed or disabled. The EC-135s are now retired; the mission was assumed by the Navy's Strategic Communications Wing One, located at Tinker AFB, Okla, flying E-6Bs.

Why not put B-52s in continuous patrol over Baghdad?

Iraq's missile or fighter defenses are very poor. Such a mission would not be risk-free, but missile sites or Iraqi fighters could be dealt with handily by our own fighter aircraft. The bomber could fly high enough to gain significant protection just from the altitude. If hostilities did erupt, we would have instant attack capability.

The effect on Iraq's citizens could be enormous. Just imagine an enemy bomber patrolling the skies over your own city, day in and out, around the clock. Every time you looked skyward, there it would be.

The B-52 is a symbol of American power and resolve understood worldwide. The message to Iraqis would be clear: We have the power to take you out any time we want, and Saddam can't do anything about it. Your military is entirely impotent.

Coupled with a well-crafted psychological campaign directed at the people, such a visible sign of American power and stamina would well serve to separate the people from Saddam and the thugs who surround him. Persuading the Iraqi people that their best future will be obtained apart from Saddam should be a key component of our regime-change strategy.

There would also be the beneficial effect of the dictators of Syria and Iran realizing that they are not safe, either, if we choose.

Just a thought . . .

Iraq has means to deliver WMDs
Has new systems to spread chemical and biological weapons;
analysts uncertain of how well they will work


The Washington Post reports that Iraq has "cobbled together" some delivery systems, including new drone aircraft, for chemical or bio weapons, with mixed results. The drones were first spotted in 1998 after a British missile popped the top off a hangar.
Up to a dozen of the unmanned airplanes were spotted inside the hangar, each fitted with spray nozzles and wing-mounted tanks that could carry up to 80 gallons of liquid anthrax. If flown at low altitudes under the right conditions, a single drone could unleash a toxic cloud engulfing several city blocks, a top British defense official concluded. He dubbed them "drones of death." . . .

But at a minimum, the analysts agree, Iraq's expanded capabilities appear to offer new ways to terrorize civilian populations, including the cities of Israel, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, among others that could bear the brunt of Iraqi retaliation.

"These aircraft are intended to fly below radar so the Israelis can't detect them -- the Iraqis themselves have said so," said a British biowarfare expert who investigated Iraq's experiments with aircraft-mounted biological weapons. "From that altitude, you can do a lot of damage over a very large area."

Yesterday, President Bush assured Congress that he would seek their approval before toppling Saddam. I hope he will be fully candid with the American people about the nature of the threat.
Jimmy Carter shows his, uh, tee-hiney again
Hugely wrong in facts about nuclear testing and Iraq

Cato the Youngest points the way to this WaPo article in which Jimmy Carter says, speaking of Iraq's potential atomic-weapon threat,

. . . even the smallest nuclear test (necessary before weapons construction) . . . would be suicidal.
Well, no. I would expect that Mr. Carter, having been a nuclear-submarine officer and holding a degree in physics from the US Naval Academy, would be more conversant with the facts, but alas, he is not.

Here is a quiz for the ex-prez:

  • How many atomic bombs did the US drop on Japan in 1945?
  • Were the bombs dropped of the same design or of a different design?
  • How many atomic bombs did the US test before dropping the bombs on Japan?

The answers, of course, are two, different and one, respectively.

The Manhattan Project, which developed the atomic bombs in World War II, produced three bombs. Two used plutonium, the other uranium. (There was not enough processed uranium to produce another bomb.) The uranium bomb was dropped on Hiroshima, the first city attacked. It was a design that came to be known as a "gun assembled weapon" (GAW). At one end of the bomb was a mass of uranium with the center section missing. At the other end of the bomb was the center section. Between the two uranium masses was a tube, basically a small cannon barrel. When the bomb's altimeter fuze system determined that the bomb was the correct height above the target, it triggered a propellant charge behind the smaller uranium mass, shooting it at high speed into the larger section. A catalytic alloy of beryllium and polonium was set at the other end of the hole; this alloy is a neutron emitter just sitting on a table. When the moving center section smashed it at high speed, it flashed neutrons out like crazy and initiated the uranium chain reaction. Instantly, the whole bomb fissioned.

This design was never tested. Scientists considered the design so reliable, and the physics so well understood, that they thought no test was necessary. They were right.

The Nagasaki bomb's design was the one tested. It was an "implosion weapon" (IW), in which the plutonium was arranged spherically around a beryllium/polonium sphere in the center. When the fuze system activated, the plutonium collapsed onto the center mass, which emitted neutrons under the pressure and impact. That made the whole thing go supercritical and the atomic explosion resulted.

At the time, the physics of plutonium were not so well understood that the scientists were confident the design would work. They knew that plutonium would fiss, but they weren't sure how much was needed to make a critical mass. Eventually, they decided that 10 kilograms of plutonium would work if it was surrounded by U-238 isotope. U-238 would not fiss, but it would reflect neutrons from the plutonium back into it.

This was the bomb tested at Trinity site. It was much more powerful than the uranium bomb turned out to be, about 20 kilotons vs. the GAW bomb's yield of about 13 kt.

Today the design and physics of both kinds of bombs are completely understood. These are the simplest kinds of atomic bombs to make, especially the GAW design. Both designs were adapted by the US Army for atomic artillery munitions, so they are both hardy designs. Obviously, such weapons today need not be so large as the Manhattan Project's bombs: a 155-mm atomic artillery weapon will fit easily on the top of a typical office desk with room to spare.

But neither design needs to be tested any more before use. That is something Mr. Carter should have known.

Wednesday, September 04, 2002

A Muslim wonders what now for Islam
Egyptian-American Muslim calls for resistance to radicalism

I wrote on Aug. 7 that non-violent Muslims need to wake up because Islam's soul is being murdered.
If what we are experiencing is not the real Islam, then the rest of the Muslims need to get the Islamic house in order. They need to understand that the present crisis is not just that of Islamists against the West, it is the Islamists against everybody who does not tow their line.

Comes now Muslim Mona Eltahawy, a permanent American resident, born in Egypt only a year apart fom Muhammed Atta. Writing in the New York Times, she says,
On the most basic level, Mr. Atta and I represent the two forces tugging at Muslims today. His backward-looking faith, austere to the bone and stripped of compassion, sought to recreate an era that exists mostly in the imaginations of fundamentalists.

Perhaps because women have rarely fared well in these imaginary bygone eras, I struggle to keep my Islam strictly in the here and now. Islam's emphasis on social justice and egalitarianism is my springboard into a faith that refuses to separate people into us and them, Muslims and others. How could I separate the two when they share the same concerns? The "Why do they hate us?" asked by my American friends is echoed in the "Why do they hate us?" from Egyptian relatives and friends, hurt that Muslims have been collectively blamed for Sept. 11. . . .

While there are individual Muslims who speak out against the regressive pull of the fundamentalists in countries as far afield as Egypt and Malaysia, often earning themselves a place on a death list in the process, the clerics who should lead Muslims away from the hatred of Mr. Atta and his conspirators are disappointingly silent.

In some Muslim countries, clerics have chosen to toe the government line; in others, the government has silenced them. Here in the United States, Muslims do not have to worry about negotiating these political minefields. We are free to debate the kind of Islam we want. We do not have to apologize but we must question, criticize and speak out. Only by reclaiming our own voice can we silence the zealots.

It's a good start.
What's up with Russia?
Say they will "veto" any UNSC resolution supporting USA

Robert Allison has been tracking the pronouncements of the Russian government, vis-a-vis anticipated US action against Iraq. Russia and Iraq have had ties going back many years, and Iraq seems to owe Russia (which is in a state of perpetual cash starvation) a lot of money. So we have Russian pronouncements that "forcefully warn" against US action and threaten to veto on the UN Security Council any action against Iraq by the US. Says Robert:
Do we dare risk war with Russia? Is that really a risk? I don't know. It's not something that had even occurred to me until I saw this story. Russia is clearly not concerned with upsetting our government since it is strengthening ties to all three nations labeled as the Axis of Evil by President Bush.

Robert emailed me and asked for my thoughts, so here they are.

It is far more important for Russia to have a good relationship with the West, mainly the US, than with Iraq. Putin knows this. I think the Russian statements are mainly blowhard traditionalism. Russia, in the guise of the old USSR, never wanted the US to increase its influence in the Middle East, and still doesn't.

Russia's threat to veto any UNSC resolution supporting action against Iraq is meaningless fluff because the US is never going to ask the UNSC for such. Bush's team has insisted all along, literally from last September, that we do not need any US authorization at any level because the UN Charter specifically recognizes the right of self defense to member states. The US is not going to submit its plans or intentions to the UN for a chop.

Russia has no critical national interest in Iraq. The idea that Russia would oppose us militarily over Iraq is not credible. That is not to say that Russia would actually support us if war came, but at the end of the day, it will tut-tut and scream and yell . . . and do nothing. They know which side their bread is buttered on.

Now for some sheer speculation: might Russian scientists, lured by generous payments from Saddam, have been the brains behind Iraq's nuclear effort? Might Russia have been the source of Iraq's fissionable nuclear materials, if indeed Iraq has any? And might that explain Russia's insistence we keep our hands off Iraq?

What revolution are You?
Made by altern_active

Tuesday, September 03, 2002

More weapons inspection chicanery
Aziz again puts cart before the horse;
Powell may be crazy like a fox


In Johannesburg, Iraq's deputy foreign minister, Tariq Aziz, said that Iraq would allow UN weapons inspectors to return under a few conditions. One, the oil embargo be ended. Two, all the UN-imposed sanction be lifted. Three, Iraq controls the inspections agenda and sets the period of time for which the inspectors may stay.

The first two conditions Aziz set are what the UN said would be the result of, rather than a precondition for, successful inspections. As for the third, any inspection routine in which Iraq sets the agenda is no inspection at all. It's as if a police squad got a search warrant for a mafia boss' home, and then permitted the mafiosi to tell them which rooms they could enter and when, and how long they could stay.

Is it coincidence that while Aziz was en route to J'burg, US Secretary of State Colin Powell appeared on the BBC and suggested that inspections be given a chance to work? Well, maybe, but I think not. I think Powell may have been playing rope-a-dope with Aziz. Remember that just a month ago, Powell told reporters, "The Iraqis have constantly tried to find their way around their obligations with respect to inspections. They understand what is required of them and there is no need for further clarification or discussion of a comprehensive approach." I have seen nothing in press reports that Powell has changed his mind, including the BBC interview. In fact, Powell's position leaves no wriggle room for Saddam.

When President Bush put a freeze on dealing with Yasir Arafat, I pointed out that contrary to the media's analysis that it showed Powell's "marginalization" from the decision, Powell probably thought it up all along:
. . . there comes a time when enough is enough, and he just cuts you off at the knees for jerking him around. . . . I know former General Powell's type (I met then-General Powell on a couple of occasions, briefly); most successful military officers are like that. I was, too, when I was on active duty. They will give you one chance after another. They will explain, train, etc., but eventually you have to perform to standard or you're out. Just. Like. That. Such people are never co-dependents and they are not enablers of others dysfunctions.

That's where I think Powell is with Yasir and Saddam. As a diplomat, Powell gave Yasir every opportunity to be a good-faith statesman. Yasir proved he would continue to be what he has always been: a terrorist. So Powell cut him out of American diplomacy.

Powell has never had any illusions about Saddam. So this first phony waltz Saddam tries to get Powell to dance to gets instantly and totally rebuffed. Neither Yasir nor Saddam will get another chance.

That last was in reference to a previous time Iraq tried to set conditions on the inspections, that yielded Powell's answer, quoted above.

What Powell floated in the BBC interview was a renewal of inspections according to the dictates of the UNSC, which is that inspections are to be complete, unfettered and unlimited in time or scope. But that is what Saddam will never agree to, and Powell knows it.

Do Powell and Cheney see eye to eye? No. They didn't when Powell was the CJCS and Cheney was the SecDef. But I also remember George S. Patton's dictum, "When everyone is thinking alike, no one is thinking."

I think both men agree that Saddam has to go and Iraq's WMD capability must be ended. The difference is that Cheney seems to think that more diplomatic initiatives will be inevitably futile, so stop the yapping and take care of business. Powell probably believes that, too, but is not ready to slam the door on diplomacy because there is no gain to doing so until the US is ready to act militarily right away.

Monday, September 02, 2002

Where's George?
Bush and team are foundering, no one at the helm of the ship of state

Reid Stott, aka Photodude, has already posted the essay I was about to write on the stunning gap of leadership at the very top of the Bush administration. So read his essay.

I am becoming more and more underwhelmed by Mr. George W. these days.
Transnational progressivism is just "gussied up" communism
Statist control of groups by denial of individualized identity remains the goal

So says Vegard Valberg:

. . . they view the most important thing as being how different groups interact, and to redefine the terms of the debate so that individual freedom would seem meaningless. That was what the Communists were all about, and we all saw how well that worked out, this is EXACTLY what the Communists were trying to do, Transnational Progressivism is in essence Communism gussied up in western terms. There is not one single solitary bit of Tranzie idealism or ideology that does not have a direct and obvious counterpart in Communism.
The real economic miracle is poverty
It's prosperity that is natural; poverty takes deliberate effort

Reader Richard Heddleson sent me a link to this piece in the UK Telegraph that explains what the real third-world economic miracle has been: poverty.

Poor countries are the world's true "economic miracles", not post-war Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Botswana or Mauritius.

Prosperity in such countries is no "miracle". It is the natural outcome of relative economic freedom. If there are "economic miracles", they are backward countries, where governments have succeeded in preventing prosperity. India is a nation of manifestly energetic and enterprising people. If left alone, they would prosper. This was clearly demonstrated when India implemented modest pro-market reforms and the country was rewarded with one of the world's highest growth rates.

However, India's flirtation with prosperity may be short-lived. It has formidable enemies, including most first-world governments, leading academics and scientists, wealthy foundations, thousands of non-governmental officers, influential journalists, passionate activists, and countless other powerful interests.

These forces constitute a new kind of colonialism, which we might call eco-imperialism. As a delegate at the World Summit in Johannesburg, I have seen that it has been vigourously represented here. It is more insidious, pervasive and potentially more devastating than traditional imperialism.

As I was driven through the squalor of urban and rural poverty on my visit to India, the newspapers of the day carried reports of esoteric and costly new environmental, health and safety laws, promoted by vocal opponents of spontaneous development because it is supposedly "unsustainable".

These people are seductive protagonists of the "precautionary principle" in response to exaggerated or imaginary environmental risks. They are enemies of globalisation, which would enable poor countries to attract foreign investment, import cheap goods, and export competitively to rich countries.

These latter-day imperialists are neo-Luddites who place elitist environmental whims and nebulous fears of "resource depletion" above the needs of the world's destitute billions.


This article, written by an African, is yet more evidence that first world leftists are racist and oppressive. The first world left aims to keep the wogs in their place, dependent on others, and deny them the basic human freedoms. When the left speaks of human rights, I don't know whether to laugh or cry. They think that human rights are something to be granted by governments, but in fact human rights are simply a fact of nature, part of the natural ordering of the universe. Governments have no business granting rights because governments have no rights to grant. All rights are automatically held by the people in the first place. The primary role of government is to ensure that the rights of the people are not infringed.

But the left sees government as the means by which the people are kept in their place.

Sunday, September 01, 2002

Why the West is free and prosperous and the Middle East is not
A repeat posting; I am taking the day off

In another post I made the point that in the Arab countries, human freedom is squelched because of the fact that the financial resources and political power are located in the same centers, the rulers. This is not an accident, but is the result of ancient history, specifically the history of the most fundamental economic activity - food production. So this posting explores the relationship of agriculture with the political-economic structures of the mid-East and the West.

The great primordial states of Egypt, India, China and Mesopotamia all arose from the need to intensify what historian Karl Wittfogel called "hydraulic agriculture," dependent on great rivers for food production. This kind of agriculture required intensive central planning and central control because the construction of water channels, sluices and locks required "antlike armies of workers . . . obedient to a few powerful leaders pursuing a single master plan," according to cultural anthropologist Marvin Harris. It did not take long for power to become concentrated solely at the top.

In contrast, the agriculture of Europe relied on rainfall. Pre-Roman-era peoples in Europe were widely distributed because they did not rely on rivers for food production. Because rainfall agriculture neither requires central authority nor prospers under it, statehood for northern Europeans developed later than in the hydraulic regions of the world. The Europeans formed into states not to produce food, but to cope with the military threat of the Mediterranean empires and to trade with them (and later to plunder them).

Centralized authority evolved in the European states to keep order and retain military capability, not to produce food. But the power of military rulers waxed and waned according to the degree of threat perceived by the societies. The basic facts of rainfall agriculture ensured that no post-Roman-era European kings could affect the fundamental basis of the economy. Simply growing food always depended upon large degrees of local autonomy. 

Thus, monarchs could never gain the absolutist authority enjoyed by their peers in the hydraulic states. In many ways, European kings were really mediators of relations among the manorial barons, who did have real control of the means of production. The matured version of this agri-political system was feudalism, which basically was a system of production, distribution and alliances among baronies, reinforced by marital and family ties.

By the 13th century, feudalism had reached the limits of efficiency. The populations of western European states had risen to a level that manorial farming could not support. Production efficiency fell, dragging profitability along with it. To prop up profits, barons turned over vast areas of depleted farmland to herding, especially of sheep for wool, which was highly profitable. However, newly opened farmlands gave poorer yields than the old. In the short term, manorial profits went up, but over the longer term, the people working the land suffered terribly.

In the mid-14th century, the black plague killed between one-fourth to one-third of Europeans. In its aftermath, Europe was embroiled in intense political and economic unrest and warfare which feudalism did not survive. The basic economy of Europe was transformed from manorial farming into a manufacturing and trade economy, primarily of textiles made from wool. The economy of Europe became a proto-factory one.

But these proto-factories (mainly mills and later, metalworks) required accumulation of capital to maximize production because machinery was expensive. Profitability required ever-greater efficiencies of manufacture, and greater efficiencies depended on technical innovation. The principal thrust of technical innovation was to gain advantage over competitors, which was essential to raise capital and increase profits.

The merger of business, technology and finance into one operating entity, the legal company, was the unique invention of European states. All the other states of the world did business, produced inventions and technical innovations, and had financial organs, but only in Europe were all these functions combined in single companies owned by non-rulers for the purpose of increasing private capital. China, for example, enjoyed technical innovation at least as great as Europe's until the 14th century, and Chinese emperors permitted private lands and business to a significant degree. They also established banking and merchant systems. But Chinese authorities never permitted Chinese business owners to establish legal corporations and technical innovations never became the key to competitive advantage over other businesses. Essentially, the Chinese monarchies treated private enterprise as a useful source of revenue and nothing more, feeding the Chinese internal revenue system. (Karl Marx called internal revenue organs, "bureaus of internal plunder." Perhaps a name change for the IRS would be in order?)

The emergence of capitalism in late-medieval Europe served to check the power of royalty far more effectively than the baronial powers had ever done. Western monarchs could be just as power hungry as their eastern counterparts but their power had always been limited by the Church and the nobility. With the rise of capitalist systems, wealthy business owners and merchants became power centers in their own right, further serving to limit the power of the state. Ultimately, the combination of legal and new economic structures gave birth to bourgeois legislatures beginning in the 17th century.

Defining capitalism is not as easy as it might first seem. Is capitalism primarily an economic system of production distribution and profit, or is it really a political system of personal freedom and property rights, with economic consequences? Affirmative definitions for both sides can be found.

As it formed, though, it was neither. Capitalism began as nothing other than the search for maximum efficiency of using resources in societies mostly ordered for personal freedom with property protections, and this it basically remains. There is no single political or economic center in capitalist societies, meaning that both errors in efficiency and their corrections are continuous and multitudinous.

Capitalism on the whole is self-correcting. Indeed, the West's ability to be self-critical, resulting from and sustained by the university system (another Western invention), and its ability to be self-correcting in its financial transactions may be the most powerful advantage that Westernism has over any other system. The other main systems of the world, mainly the Chinese, Indian and Japanese - but not most of the Islamic world - have either developed similar capabilities or adapted the West's.

The historical result of Western capitalism has been the creation of enormous wealth in the capitalist nations. However, until 150 years ago, almost all the wealth was concentrated in very few hands. The capitalist society of Wesleyan England had more total wealth than its earlier feudal society but the lower classes were no better off. The middle class enjoyed a decent standard of living, but nowhere in Europe did the middle class comprise a significant percentage of the population until after 1850. It was only the development of new energy sources, means of communication and transportation after 1850 that enabled technical innovations to get ahead of the population curve, resulting for the first time in an overall rise in living standards.

Wealth creation was aided, of course, by the fact that Europe and the Americas were super-abundant in natural resources, but the mere presence of such resources did not automatically result in wealth. Many areas of the world have abundant resources but are poor. Furthermore, such resources were necessary for the great wealth of the West, but were not sufficient. The legal-political ordering of European societies were also essential to the rise of capitalism.